水利建设市场主体信用评价指标体系改进——以施工单位为例

针对现行水利建设市场主体信用评价指标体系,以施工单位为例,在比较分析已有信用评价结果的基础上,采用问卷调查统计方法,得到市场主体对现有评价指标的认同度,并分析不同指标认同度差异的原因,进而提出删除门户网站及平台信息、固定资产占总资产比例及施工年产值等认同度低的指标,提高管理层素质、人员素质及管理制度等认同度高的指标的权重。     

区域耕地生态价值补偿量化研究——以新疆为例

[目的]在耕地保护形势日趋严峻的情形下,开展耕地生态价值补偿量化研究对了解耕地外部性价值的大小及深化耕地生态价值的量化方法和思路具有重要意义。[方法]文章以新疆为例,从14个地州市的耕地生态服务价值出发,将生态超载指数作为耕地生态服务价值与生态足迹在各地州市转移的测度,同时综合考虑各地州市的经济发展状况,通过构建市域生态价值补偿量化模型分别测算各地州市耕地生态价值补偿量。[结果](1)2015年新疆耕地生态服务价值整体上有盈余输出,全疆共可获得生态补偿费103.31亿元;(2)2015年新疆南北疆耕地生态服务价值比为1:1.7,生态足迹总量比为1:2.2,生态超载指数北亏南盈,表明南北疆耕地生态足迹和耕地生态服务价值间呈"空间异位"格局;(3)新疆北疆乌鲁木齐市、克拉玛依市、吐鲁番市及哈密市共需支付耕地生态补偿费55.67亿元,北疆(乌鲁木齐市、克拉玛依市、吐鲁番市及哈密市外)和南疆地区分别可获得生态补偿费为96.59亿元和62.39亿元。[结论]该文可为新疆各地州市构建耕地生态价值补偿路径提供新思路,也可为以耕地生态价值量确定耕地保护指标和构建耕地生态补偿机制提供参考。     

Volatility dynamics under an endogenous Markov-switching framework: a cross-market approach

This study uses an endogenous Markov-switching framework to examine the interrelatedness of the volatility dynamics of the US and Korean markets. Previous literature assumes that the US market implied volatility index is exogenous to the Korean implied volatility index. Here, we allow for correlations between the US and Korean variables and suggest two types of endogeneity, namely endogeneity in the regressors and in the regime-switching probabilities. The estimation results show that both types of endogeneity are present in the US variables and that the parameter estimates are quite different when endogeneity is considered, indicating a serious endogeneity bias in the parameter estimates. The results of the endogeneity test for the regressors show that the effects of global shocks are often persistent and may last for as long as six periods. Sub-period analyses indicate that the degrees of endogeneity were especially strong during the global financial crisis.     

Corporate environmental reporting: Are French firms compliant with the Task Force on Climate Financial Disclosures' recommendations?

This article deals with the practices of French corporate environmental disclosure with a focus on climate-related risks. In particular, it aims to analyse the compliance of CAC 40 firms with the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (2017), an international initiative made up by Financial Stability Board to enhance financial transparency. On the basis of a content analysis of firms' reference documents spanning 2015–2018, we constructed the Climate Compliance Index (CCI) to evaluate whether firms disclose information on climate risks and opportunities about governance, strategy, risk management and metrics. Our results highlight a gradual increase of the CCI despite disparities across sectors and management areas. The content analysis allows us to develop a set of indicators frequently reported by domain and to identify and define climate risks and opportunities and their financial impacts per sector, which is a first step to improve the disclosure of non-financial information.     

“Sensing” the destination: Development of the destination sensescape index

Despite the increasing academic interest in the sensory dimension of the tourist experience, the quantitative empirical research in the field is limited by a lack of measurement instruments for evaluating the sensory stimuli perceived by tourists during a destination visit. The study addresses this gap by developing a composite index to assess the sensory destination panorama, termed as “destination sensescape”. The construct is conceptualised as a formative multidimensional variable with 5 dimensions (visualscape, smellscape, tastescape, soundscape, and hapticscape). The psychometric validity and reliability of the 17 items integrating the formative index were established by a rigorous multi-step procedure based on three empirical studies. The instrument was tested with data collected from visitors of a Mediterranean urban destination. The operationalisation of the destination sensescape construct not only paves the way for future quantitative sensory studies, but also yields a useful tool for Destination Marketing Organisations (DMOs).     

Revising price history: consumer price index for Norway 1492–2018

ABSTRACT

The paper presents a new combined annual cost of living and consumer price index for Norway covering 1492–2018, indicating that Norwegian price history has to be revised. The new historical price index is constructed on a significantly richer data material, which also makes it cover a longer period of price history than the existing one. This is made possible by the compilation of quantitative data from numerous sources, mostly originating from the eighteenth, nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, with grain prices stretching back to 1492. The new combined cost of living and consumer price index is constructed by a Laspeyres approach with shifting baskets for commodities and expenditure groups.

The index makes it possible to follow annual inflation and deflation in Norway for a period of 526 years. When comparing to existing indices, the new series reveals that revisions are needed in Norwegian price history. These make the historical price development more in line with those of the neighbouring countries and more in line with the pattern of wholesale prices.     

Employment quality index for the South African labour market

ABSTRACT

While the South African government specifically set targets on job creation in its numerous economic strategies since the economic transition, various local studies examined the levels and trends in labour force, employment and unemployment to evaluate if these targets were met. However, the quality of employment has not been thoroughly examined. This is the first local study that fills the existing research gap by deriving a composite, multidimensional employment quality index by taking 18 indicators from seven dimensions into consideration: wage, work hours and flexibility, employment security, income security, social benefits, skills and participation. Using the 2010–16 Quarterly Labour Force Survey data, the empirical findings indicated that highly educated, white male workers aged at least 35 years, who lived in urban areas of the Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, and were involved in high skilled occupations in the formal, public sector enjoyed significantly better employment quality.     

禽流感危机下肉鸡产业市场状态分析*——基于互联网大数据和MS-VAR模型

[目的]为了有效应对禽流感冲击、维持肉鸡产业稳定健康发展。[方法]基于互联网大数据构建了禽流感舆情指数,选取2012年1月至2017年3月周度数据,通过MS-VAR模型分析了禽流感危机下肉鸡市场状态的转换特征以及不同市场状态下产业链价格传导关系。[结果]2012年以来可将肉鸡产业市场状态划分为危机状态和正常状态,肉鸡产业市场在两个市场状态下转换频繁;肉鸡产业危机市场状态和正常市场状态平均持续期分别为4.65周和9.05周;肉鸡市场在区制转移概率上存在明显的非对称特征;肉雏鸡、活鸡和白条鸡价格之间在危机状态下相关性小于正常市场状态下相关性;不同市场状态下肉鸡产业链价格传导存在差异;肉鸡产业市场在危机状态下不稳定程度明显增加。[结论]提出了加大对禽流感疫情的监测以及疫情处理能力,密切关注公众禽流感舆情动态变动情况,做好舆情引导,加强禽流感疫情科学知识的宣传,增强公众对禽流感的认知等对策建议。     

生态文明建设背景财政扶持、林权改革对林业生产效率的影响

基于2000—2016年中国省际面板数据,利用DEA-Malmquist指数法对中国林业生产效率的区域差异和时序变化进行研究,运用面板Tobit模型检验财政扶持对林业生产效率的影响并验证林权改革对二者关系的调节作用。研究发现:在生态文明建设背景下,林业生产效率存在显著的区域差异;技术进步对于全要素生产率的提升起到重要推进作用;财政扶持与林权改革均对林业生产效率产生了正向影响,但林权改革并没有对财政扶持与林业生产效率的关系产生积极调节作用。因此,各省份应当通过加大政府扶持力度、优化投资方式、深化集体林权制度改革等措施促进林业生产效率提升。     

非农就业对种植决策的影响*——基于土地地势的研究视角

［目的］农村劳动力非农转移影响农户农业生产方式变迁，土地质量差异造成的生产差异会随着农村劳动力非农转移造成的人力投入减少而更加显现。针对农户的市场经济行为，文章从理论及实证角度探讨农户农业劳动投入减少时农户生产决策的变化，并根据实证结果进一步探讨我国农业种植结构的变化趋势，为相关政策的制定提供决策参考。［方法］该文运用多元回归模型，从土地资源异质性的视角分析了劳动力非农就业后在不同地势耕地的农业生产决策变化。［结果］劳动力非农就业明显影响了农户种植决策，在质量较高的平地上，农户的生产决策是种植机械化生产使用高的粮食作物来减少劳动力投入下降，在质量较差的山坡地上，农户的生产决策是降低对山坡地的使用强度来解决劳动力投入不足问题，具体表现方式是降低粮食种植面积以及抛荒方式来分配家庭农业劳动投入。［结论］不同地势耕地利用强度将会出现不同变化，平原以及交通便利地区，可以通过机械来替代人力投入，交通较为不发达的山区丘陵地区，需要通过加大农业基础设施建设等来解决山区丘陵地区的抛荒问题。政策支持方面，鼓励中低产田提高产品产量与提升降本技术，保障与维护国家粮食安全。